* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032014 06/10/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 51 56 66 71 77 75 74 70 64 58 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 51 56 66 71 77 75 74 70 64 58 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 44 48 52 59 64 68 68 66 61 56 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 8 9 9 9 7 8 8 10 11 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -5 -4 -3 -5 -4 -3 0 2 3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 25 14 359 355 359 347 337 292 245 217 200 254 234 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.0 28.5 27.8 26.9 26.3 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 163 163 162 161 157 153 148 141 132 124 117 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.1 -51.8 -51.4 -51.9 -51.1 -51.4 -50.7 -51.3 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 8 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 64 63 62 61 62 60 54 54 51 50 48 47 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 7 8 9 11 11 15 16 18 17 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 23 18 15 13 12 -8 -6 -3 0 -2 -15 -15 -22 200 MB DIV 70 77 50 43 34 9 17 11 27 7 2 -17 -5 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -2 -4 -1 0 1 0 1 3 LAND (KM) 221 241 265 267 281 352 408 459 538 626 613 624 607 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.7 15.7 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.8 17.3 17.9 18.4 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 101.9 102.4 102.8 103.4 103.9 105.4 106.8 108.0 109.3 110.7 112.5 113.6 114.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 6 7 6 6 7 8 8 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 36 33 31 31 34 41 28 22 19 13 2 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 26. 27. 28. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 14. 15. 17. 17. 15. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 21. 31. 36. 42. 40. 39. 35. 29. 23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032014 THREE 06/10/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 63% is 4.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 42% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 31% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 28% is 6.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 THREE 06/10/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##