* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/10/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 41 44 48 58 63 69 66 67 64 62 56 V (KT) LAND 35 37 41 44 48 58 63 69 66 67 64 62 56 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 42 44 49 52 55 55 54 51 48 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 12 12 10 7 7 3 3 6 10 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -6 -6 -6 -4 -2 0 5 3 1 4 1 SHEAR DIR 19 6 358 8 1 326 300 275 255 180 206 230 232 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.2 28.8 28.3 27.7 26.8 26.3 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 163 162 161 160 155 151 146 140 130 124 118 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 64 64 63 63 62 57 53 52 51 53 49 47 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 7 8 8 8 12 13 17 15 18 17 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 14 12 11 10 0 -10 -6 0 0 -4 -10 -11 -22 200 MB DIV 61 54 51 44 27 10 25 19 21 -1 -13 -13 -13 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -3 -5 -4 -5 -2 0 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 228 259 270 287 315 378 419 470 524 570 527 536 555 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.5 18.9 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 102.2 102.7 103.2 103.8 104.4 105.8 107.3 108.5 109.5 110.6 111.9 112.9 113.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 33 31 31 35 41 39 24 20 16 10 3 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 25. 27. 27. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 11. 17. 15. 18. 17. 18. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 23. 28. 34. 31. 33. 29. 27. 21. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/10/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/10/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##