* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/10/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 50 55 64 70 77 75 71 67 61 53 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 50 55 64 70 77 75 71 67 61 53 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 49 52 58 63 65 65 63 59 53 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 8 7 5 3 2 7 1 5 11 13 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -6 -6 -4 -3 -2 0 4 1 2 0 4 SHEAR DIR 6 2 16 10 348 353 263 56 248 212 224 241 265 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.1 28.5 27.9 27.2 26.5 25.7 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 162 162 161 158 155 148 141 134 127 119 109 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -51.1 -51.4 -51.8 -51.2 -51.7 -50.6 -51.3 -50.5 -51.2 -50.5 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 60 59 56 54 51 50 49 46 41 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 10 12 15 16 20 20 19 19 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 12 13 13 3 -9 0 -1 6 5 1 -6 -17 -12 200 MB DIV 49 36 35 36 14 39 44 50 24 31 4 4 -10 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -5 -3 -1 -2 -4 -2 -2 -2 1 0 LAND (KM) 252 269 283 315 354 423 460 517 581 555 548 569 635 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.8 16.3 17.0 17.5 18.1 18.6 19.2 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 102.6 103.2 103.7 104.4 105.1 106.5 107.9 109.2 110.3 111.5 112.6 113.8 115.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 33 33 34 39 40 32 22 19 15 7 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 22. 23. 23. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 9. 15. 15. 14. 15. 13. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 24. 30. 37. 35. 31. 27. 21. 13. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/10/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/10/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##