* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/10/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 58 64 70 76 76 75 68 64 56 49 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 58 64 70 76 76 75 68 64 56 49 V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 54 58 61 67 69 69 67 62 56 50 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 8 7 6 6 3 2 2 8 11 14 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -3 -5 -5 -6 -6 -1 3 7 3 1 2 2 SHEAR DIR 3 3 355 337 319 295 249 243 247 234 253 262 265 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.3 27.5 26.8 26.3 25.4 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 161 161 160 157 152 146 138 130 125 116 105 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -51.0 -51.2 -50.4 -50.5 -50.9 -50.6 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 61 62 61 59 57 54 52 48 49 48 47 40 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 12 14 14 17 18 19 17 17 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 8 10 2 -8 -7 -2 9 10 2 -2 -5 -17 -6 200 MB DIV 44 44 36 19 25 42 25 7 41 0 -11 -11 -5 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 -2 -4 0 -1 1 LAND (KM) 278 285 305 335 367 428 468 532 561 527 542 576 626 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.7 15.7 16.0 16.6 17.3 17.9 18.5 18.9 19.5 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 103.0 103.6 104.2 104.9 105.5 107.0 108.3 109.6 110.8 111.9 113.0 114.2 115.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 33 34 37 39 38 27 20 18 10 5 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 13. 17. 19. 19. 18. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 11. 12. 14. 11. 12. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 19. 25. 31. 31. 30. 23. 19. 11. 5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/10/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 22% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/10/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##