* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/11/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 69 74 77 84 82 77 70 63 55 46 36 V (KT) LAND 60 64 69 74 77 84 82 77 70 63 55 46 36 V (KT) LGE mod 60 65 69 72 75 78 78 74 66 57 48 42 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 5 6 4 1 2 9 12 14 11 17 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -6 -5 -3 2 6 5 1 0 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 353 343 359 346 17 358 297 253 236 242 281 274 256 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.4 27.6 26.8 26.2 25.8 25.1 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 160 160 158 155 147 139 130 123 119 112 105 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.0 -51.3 -50.7 -50.6 -50.7 -50.4 -50.6 -50.3 -50.4 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 62 61 61 60 58 57 54 55 52 49 43 37 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 16 17 17 17 20 19 20 19 20 18 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 6 0 7 9 5 14 10 3 -5 -8 -12 -9 -19 200 MB DIV 32 34 65 60 47 58 33 19 25 7 -31 -19 -20 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -4 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 328 355 388 402 418 428 498 534 481 476 524 577 641 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.6 17.3 18.1 18.8 19.3 19.4 19.7 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 103.8 104.5 105.2 105.9 106.6 107.8 109.2 110.4 111.5 112.5 113.4 114.4 115.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 37 42 43 38 31 20 18 10 5 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 5. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 10. 9. 10. 9. 10. 8. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 17. 24. 22. 17. 10. 3. -5. -14. -24. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/11/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/11/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##