* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/11/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 73 77 82 84 80 76 68 59 51 42 33 V (KT) LAND 65 69 73 77 82 84 80 76 68 59 51 42 33 V (KT) LGE mod 65 69 73 76 78 80 78 72 64 55 47 41 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 7 3 4 7 7 4 12 12 16 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -6 -4 -2 2 4 5 4 1 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 348 336 329 355 323 296 267 235 229 263 299 295 261 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 28.8 27.9 27.1 26.5 26.0 25.6 25.2 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 160 158 156 151 142 133 127 121 116 112 107 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -50.2 -51.0 -50.2 -50.6 -50.4 -50.7 -50.2 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 62 62 60 58 56 57 55 53 54 50 45 37 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 17 17 17 20 20 19 20 19 19 18 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR -3 3 8 2 3 15 6 -2 -9 -15 -10 -19 -19 200 MB DIV 29 41 53 41 34 29 -11 12 22 0 -23 -31 3 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -1 1 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 340 366 395 415 427 473 542 515 489 513 553 584 606 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.9 17.7 18.4 19.0 19.3 19.4 19.6 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 104.5 105.2 105.8 106.6 107.3 108.6 110.0 111.2 112.2 113.1 113.8 114.4 114.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 37 38 35 30 24 20 16 8 3 1 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 19. 15. 11. 3. -5. -14. -23. -32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/11/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/11/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##