* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/11/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 79 84 87 90 85 79 70 60 51 41 33 V (KT) LAND 70 74 79 84 87 90 85 79 70 60 51 41 33 V (KT) LGE mod 70 74 77 80 82 83 81 74 64 55 47 41 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 3 3 1 3 10 12 13 12 13 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 0 0 5 4 0 0 1 -3 2 3 SHEAR DIR 326 326 339 84 167 339 246 247 256 288 306 266 254 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.5 27.6 26.8 26.3 25.9 25.5 25.0 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 159 157 155 148 139 130 124 119 115 110 105 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -50.5 -50.3 -50.3 -50.4 -50.4 -50.2 -50.2 -50.6 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 60 61 59 58 56 54 50 50 44 39 34 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 18 19 20 20 21 20 21 20 19 18 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 6 9 6 4 10 12 6 -3 -5 -6 -7 -19 -27 200 MB DIV 44 48 35 34 50 12 16 0 19 -8 -29 -24 -13 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 -6 0 -3 1 -1 -1 -1 1 LAND (KM) 358 384 418 417 429 487 546 495 495 511 553 594 610 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.8 16.2 16.5 17.2 18.0 18.7 19.1 19.4 19.5 19.7 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 105.0 105.7 106.4 107.1 107.7 109.0 110.5 111.6 112.5 113.2 113.9 114.6 115.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 5 4 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 38 35 32 25 21 20 11 6 3 1 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -3. -6. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 17. 20. 15. 9. 0. -10. -19. -29. -36. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/11/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 2.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 22% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/11/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##