* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/12/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 84 88 91 91 87 79 71 60 48 39 29 V (KT) LAND 75 79 84 88 91 91 87 79 71 60 48 39 29 V (KT) LGE mod 75 79 82 83 83 81 77 72 65 58 52 46 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 4 1 1 0 2 10 6 7 6 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 0 0 2 6 4 -2 -2 -1 0 1 4 SHEAR DIR 298 310 290 251 222 142 192 247 266 305 281 258 246 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.2 27.3 26.7 26.3 25.9 25.4 25.0 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 158 155 153 145 135 128 123 120 114 110 104 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -50.5 -50.2 -50.6 -49.9 -50.3 -50.2 -50.4 -50.1 -50.7 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 61 59 60 59 58 56 50 45 40 34 32 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 20 21 22 21 22 21 21 20 17 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 12 5 5 16 15 14 7 -7 -1 -2 -11 -14 -44 200 MB DIV 40 32 40 68 27 12 58 2 19 -12 -25 -25 -28 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 -1 -3 -4 -2 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 352 376 383 399 432 498 494 467 480 511 545 587 616 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.7 18.5 19.0 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.8 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.1 106.7 107.5 108.2 109.5 110.7 111.7 112.4 113.2 113.9 114.6 115.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 3 4 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 34 30 25 20 19 17 8 5 3 1 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -1. -4. -8. -11. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. -2. -4. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 16. 16. 12. 4. -4. -15. -27. -36. -46. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/12/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 25% is 6.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/12/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##