* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/12/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 107 111 112 111 107 95 84 71 60 47 35 24 V (KT) LAND 100 107 111 112 111 107 95 84 71 60 47 35 24 V (KT) LGE mod 100 106 108 106 104 95 85 74 64 56 48 42 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 2 1 2 2 5 7 8 9 13 13 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 2 0 1 4 4 0 0 -3 2 4 4 SHEAR DIR 296 285 288 222 16 264 196 253 279 285 274 259 249 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.6 27.7 26.8 26.3 25.9 25.4 24.9 24.4 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 156 153 149 140 130 124 119 114 109 105 97 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -50.3 -50.5 -51.1 -50.5 -50.3 -50.2 -50.2 -50.2 -50.3 -51.0 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 63 61 61 58 56 53 51 51 42 38 33 32 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 19 19 16 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 4 1 13 15 18 10 6 -1 -3 0 -12 -26 -47 200 MB DIV 25 43 73 16 -14 50 36 34 -21 -33 -29 -10 -22 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -2 -4 -3 -4 0 -1 0 0 3 0 LAND (KM) 373 377 391 420 457 507 450 440 445 469 504 552 616 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.4 18.3 19.0 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.5 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 106.1 106.8 107.4 108.1 108.8 110.0 111.2 112.0 112.6 113.3 114.0 115.0 116.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 7 7 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 29 24 20 18 19 11 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -4. -11. -18. -25. -31. -37. -41. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. -1. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 11. 12. 11. 7. -5. -16. -29. -40. -53. -65. -76. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/12/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 35% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 29% is 7.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/12/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##