* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/12/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 133 135 130 125 109 91 75 61 50 39 28 19 V (KT) LAND 125 133 135 130 125 109 91 75 61 50 39 28 19 V (KT) LGE mod 125 131 129 123 115 100 85 73 62 54 47 40 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 2 3 1 6 7 4 8 10 13 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 0 2 3 1 0 0 -4 1 1 2 SHEAR DIR 226 200 185 193 251 197 244 293 284 272 252 251 267 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.2 26.4 25.9 25.7 25.4 24.8 24.4 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 152 148 144 135 125 119 117 114 108 104 100 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.4 -50.8 -51.2 -51.2 -49.8 -50.4 -50.0 -50.3 -50.2 -50.9 -51.1 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 7 5 6 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 60 62 58 54 54 50 47 42 38 32 30 28 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 20 18 20 21 21 20 19 18 16 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 2 17 14 18 17 15 8 0 4 0 -7 -30 -33 200 MB DIV 51 82 -18 2 31 68 -1 2 -14 -24 -13 -17 -32 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 -3 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 1 4 LAND (KM) 379 394 425 455 486 472 441 454 463 499 559 611 701 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.7 19.3 19.6 19.8 19.9 20.1 20.1 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.5 108.2 108.9 109.5 110.7 111.8 112.6 113.0 113.6 114.5 115.4 116.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 7 5 3 3 4 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 21 19 18 17 14 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -8. -18. -29. -40. -49. -57. -64. -69. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 11. 16. 16. 14. 7. 1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 10. 5. 0. -16. -34. -50. -64. -75. -86. -97.-106. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/12/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 40.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/12/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##