* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/12/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 128 125 121 114 98 82 67 55 43 31 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 125 128 125 121 114 98 82 67 55 43 31 19 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 125 126 123 117 109 94 80 67 58 51 44 37 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 1 2 8 6 9 5 7 11 16 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 4 3 1 5 0 0 -1 1 2 4 3 SHEAR DIR 14 328 1 253 259 240 254 270 269 243 255 261 279 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.7 26.9 26.5 26.0 25.7 25.3 24.8 24.2 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 149 145 140 131 126 120 117 113 109 103 97 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.5 -51.1 -51.3 -50.8 -50.5 -50.4 -50.4 -50.9 -51.1 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 62 60 58 60 57 55 51 42 39 35 33 30 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 20 18 19 20 20 19 18 17 15 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 10 10 19 19 16 15 2 -8 3 -9 -21 -35 -47 200 MB DIV 61 36 -13 24 36 30 17 -22 -25 -18 -5 -28 -29 700-850 TADV 1 0 -4 -2 -1 -4 2 -4 1 0 4 1 6 LAND (KM) 398 427 463 494 527 472 470 485 501 538 613 685 785 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.6 19.8 19.8 19.8 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 107.5 108.2 108.8 109.5 110.1 111.2 112.0 112.8 113.3 114.0 114.9 116.2 117.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 5 4 3 3 4 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 18 15 11 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -10. -20. -31. -41. -50. -58. -65. -70. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 8. 7. 3. 0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 0. -4. -11. -27. -43. -58. -70. -82. -94.-106.-116. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/12/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/12/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##