* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/13/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 102 96 93 91 84 74 64 52 40 28 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 110 102 96 93 91 84 74 64 52 40 28 18 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 110 102 95 89 84 74 66 58 52 46 39 33 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 4 6 6 7 8 10 12 13 12 7 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 4 4 2 -4 0 0 3 4 8 9 SHEAR DIR 274 279 274 244 203 220 271 302 296 288 285 278 251 SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.8 27.3 26.6 26.1 25.8 25.4 24.9 24.2 23.8 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 145 141 135 127 122 119 115 110 103 100 100 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.9 -51.1 -50.7 -50.0 -50.5 -49.9 -50.4 -50.4 -50.8 -50.9 -51.2 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 7 5 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 62 60 61 59 58 55 47 41 35 34 29 27 21 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 20 21 21 21 19 18 16 14 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 11 16 15 18 19 8 -3 -1 -8 -16 -35 -33 -40 200 MB DIV 45 18 45 47 55 27 9 -31 -42 -25 -32 -36 -14 700-850 TADV 0 -5 -3 -1 -2 0 0 -2 0 0 2 2 4 LAND (KM) 408 437 468 501 480 443 452 502 561 642 694 816 984 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.6 19.2 19.5 19.5 19.6 19.6 19.7 19.5 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.7 109.3 109.9 110.5 111.6 112.4 113.2 114.1 115.1 116.2 117.8 119.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 5 6 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 14 11 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -14. -23. -32. -40. -47. -52. -57. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -6. -8. -9. -8. -6. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -17. -19. -26. -36. -46. -58. -70. -82. -92.-101. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/13/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/13/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##