* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/13/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 86 82 79 76 70 61 51 40 28 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 86 82 79 76 70 61 51 40 28 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 84 77 72 68 60 53 46 41 35 30 25 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 5 6 10 10 11 10 10 12 9 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 6 5 4 0 1 1 1 3 4 3 3 SHEAR DIR 233 102 257 218 207 236 294 284 245 260 223 223 206 SST (C) 28.6 28.2 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.2 25.7 25.3 25.0 24.4 23.7 23.6 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 140 136 131 123 118 113 110 105 98 97 99 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.1 -50.6 -50.2 -50.5 -50.4 -50.5 -50.7 -50.6 -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 59 62 59 57 56 52 44 39 36 32 28 24 16 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 20 21 20 20 19 18 16 14 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 18 17 16 21 21 7 2 0 -4 -12 -12 4 0 200 MB DIV 25 49 70 69 38 22 -19 -35 -27 -18 -13 -6 -4 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -2 0 1 2 -2 -1 0 2 1 3 2 LAND (KM) 448 479 512 487 461 445 479 530 587 656 749 868 991 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.4 19.7 19.8 19.8 19.8 19.8 19.5 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 108.7 109.4 110.0 110.6 111.2 112.1 113.1 113.9 114.6 115.7 117.2 118.5 119.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 6 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 17 15 11 7 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -3. -9. -16. -24. -30. -36. -41. -45. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -8. -12. -13. -13. -9. -7. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -13. -16. -19. -25. -34. -44. -55. -67. -80. -90. -98. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/13/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/13/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##