* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/13/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 79 76 73 71 66 57 47 37 24 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 79 76 73 71 66 57 47 37 24 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 77 71 67 64 57 51 46 40 35 29 24 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 5 7 8 8 10 11 11 13 17 20 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 7 5 1 -1 2 0 3 3 2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 336 295 283 240 195 262 284 263 247 236 223 228 227 SST (C) 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.1 25.6 25.1 24.6 24.0 23.4 23.2 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 141 136 132 128 122 117 111 106 100 94 92 91 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.4 -50.1 -50.3 -50.6 -50.2 -50.4 -50.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 57 56 48 43 37 36 32 30 24 20 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 21 21 20 20 20 18 16 15 12 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 16 19 28 25 15 0 0 -7 -13 -27 -21 -29 -26 200 MB DIV 39 83 65 9 15 5 -36 -37 -16 -21 -5 0 -3 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 1 LAND (KM) 475 506 491 467 450 446 477 532 576 615 679 754 841 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.4 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 109.3 109.9 110.5 111.0 111.5 112.3 113.2 114.1 114.9 115.8 116.9 117.9 118.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 7 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -12. -18. -24. -29. -33. -38. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -6. -10. -11. -11. -9. -7. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -11. -14. -16. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -12. -14. -19. -28. -38. -48. -61. -74. -84. -92. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/13/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/13/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##