* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/13/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 76 72 69 66 58 47 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 76 72 69 66 58 47 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 74 70 66 63 56 49 42 36 29 24 20 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 7 9 13 10 17 19 18 17 15 19 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 4 0 0 0 3 0 3 0 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 286 288 249 218 232 269 275 273 261 242 224 205 215 SST (C) 27.7 27.3 26.8 26.5 26.2 25.7 25.2 24.7 24.1 23.5 23.0 22.7 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 136 130 126 123 118 112 107 101 94 89 85 83 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.0 -50.3 -50.8 -50.6 -50.8 -51.1 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 57 58 56 56 53 46 43 38 34 28 23 19 17 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 19 20 19 17 16 13 12 10 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 16 18 18 9 4 0 -1 -14 -24 -34 -48 -68 -61 200 MB DIV 53 73 32 -10 11 -25 -36 -25 -25 -31 -12 -2 17 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -3 1 2 0 0 0 2 1 3 0 2 LAND (KM) 498 469 434 422 416 428 469 532 564 597 602 627 656 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.4 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.4 20.6 20.8 21.2 21.4 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 109.9 110.5 111.0 111.5 111.9 112.6 113.5 114.4 115.4 116.2 116.7 117.2 117.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -12. -18. -24. -28. -32. -36. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -11. -14. -17. -19. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -14. -22. -33. -46. -56. -68. -80. -89. -98. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/13/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/13/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##