* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/14/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 68 64 59 47 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 72 68 64 59 47 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 71 67 62 58 49 41 33 27 21 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 10 10 12 22 17 20 15 17 17 26 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 4 2 0 2 0 3 4 2 1 -2 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 240 211 226 240 269 289 285 273 249 247 214 217 219 SST (C) 26.8 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.7 25.1 24.6 24.1 23.5 23.0 22.8 22.7 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 130 126 123 120 118 111 106 101 94 89 87 85 84 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.1 -50.8 -50.5 -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.9 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 55 55 53 48 45 44 41 37 31 28 25 23 21 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 19 17 17 16 13 11 9 7 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 12 8 2 -6 -6 -4 -23 -30 -43 -53 -62 -56 -58 200 MB DIV 21 0 18 -9 -23 -20 -26 -23 -29 -9 14 15 10 700-850 TADV -5 0 1 -1 -3 0 -1 2 2 4 2 2 -1 LAND (KM) 434 420 411 412 419 454 502 514 552 602 649 690 717 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.4 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.3 20.6 20.9 21.1 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 111.0 111.4 111.8 112.2 112.6 113.4 114.2 115.0 115.9 116.7 117.3 117.8 118.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -14. -19. -25. -29. -32. -35. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -16. -28. -42. -56. -68. -79. -88. -98.-105. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/14/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/14/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##