* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/14/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 42 35 29 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 42 35 29 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 42 36 32 29 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 12 15 18 16 18 19 21 18 26 31 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 4 1 1 6 3 2 -1 -3 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 225 241 265 275 280 288 266 257 255 232 218 217 214 SST (C) 26.3 26.0 25.7 25.4 25.0 24.4 23.7 23.0 22.4 22.1 21.8 21.6 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 124 121 118 115 111 104 97 89 83 79 76 74 72 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -54.1 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 54 47 45 47 45 40 36 31 29 24 22 20 20 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 15 15 14 12 10 8 6 5 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -12 -11 -7 -7 -25 -35 -48 -57 -72 -60 -56 -42 200 MB DIV -8 -13 -14 -17 -20 -24 -27 -38 -21 -8 15 33 40 700-850 TADV 1 0 -3 -3 0 -2 0 1 3 -1 -2 -4 -7 LAND (KM) 402 404 413 427 447 489 504 518 510 508 499 500 522 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.4 20.8 21.2 21.7 22.3 22.8 23.2 23.6 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 111.6 112.1 112.5 113.0 113.4 114.3 115.3 116.1 116.5 116.8 116.9 117.3 117.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -13. -15. -17. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -8. -7. -7. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -21. -25. -36. -47. -57. -66. -72. -81. -87. -93. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/14/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/14/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##