* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/15/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 33 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 33 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 33 28 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 18 23 24 24 25 28 23 30 31 35 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 1 0 8 3 4 2 -2 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 250 264 266 279 294 285 272 247 240 235 225 226 222 SST (C) 26.0 25.7 25.4 25.0 24.6 23.8 22.9 22.2 21.8 21.4 21.1 20.7 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 121 118 115 111 107 98 89 81 77 73 70 65 61 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.9 -53.4 -54.2 -54.7 -54.6 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 4 4 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 44 45 43 40 38 31 30 25 22 21 19 18 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 13 11 9 7 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -12 -8 -8 -24 -29 -43 -42 -72 -53 -50 -28 -11 200 MB DIV -24 -30 -25 -26 -32 -19 -32 -30 -10 20 48 40 21 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 0 -1 -2 2 1 0 -1 -5 -3 -16 LAND (KM) 416 420 431 456 487 476 503 510 532 522 559 610 632 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.5 20.7 21.3 21.8 22.6 23.1 23.8 24.1 24.4 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 112.1 112.6 113.0 113.6 114.1 115.0 116.0 116.7 117.2 117.9 118.8 119.8 120.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -8. -9. -10. -12. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -15. -19. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -17. -22. -35. -49. -61. -71. -79. -88. -94. -98. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/15/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -27.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/15/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##