* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/15/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 25 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 30 25 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 29 25 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 21 25 28 26 28 25 29 27 26 28 31 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 0 -1 2 7 4 3 -1 2 8 7 1 SHEAR DIR 254 268 283 299 292 273 251 246 243 249 236 248 276 SST (C) 25.8 25.5 25.1 24.7 24.3 23.4 22.6 22.1 21.7 21.3 21.0 20.7 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 119 116 112 108 104 94 85 80 76 72 69 66 62 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -52.3 -52.6 -53.3 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 45 45 45 41 40 37 32 28 23 22 20 19 15 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 7 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -7 -8 -24 -27 -30 -43 -52 -70 -47 -45 -20 -20 200 MB DIV -27 -29 -30 -37 -24 -12 -32 -23 -16 40 42 26 -20 700-850 TADV -1 -1 1 -1 -3 3 0 3 0 -1 -4 -4 -14 LAND (KM) 430 439 454 481 488 484 498 513 542 543 588 640 678 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.1 20.3 20.6 20.9 21.5 22.1 22.7 23.2 23.8 24.0 24.3 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.0 113.4 114.0 114.5 115.4 116.2 116.8 117.4 118.2 119.1 120.1 120.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -6. -7. -8. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -14. -18. -21. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -20. -33. -48. -61. -70. -78. -87. -93. -98. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/15/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/15/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##