* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/15/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 25 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 23 22 23 28 30 30 26 36 43 34 22 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 4 9 8 7 7 4 3 2 1 5 N/A SHEAR DIR 283 292 280 272 262 252 262 252 301 299 286 233 N/A SST (C) 25.1 24.6 24.2 23.8 23.3 22.4 21.7 21.1 20.6 20.1 19.7 20.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 107 102 99 93 84 77 70 65 59 58 60 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.8 -52.2 -52.5 -53.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -53.7 -53.2 -52.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 38 38 37 35 29 24 17 14 11 11 10 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 8 7 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -23 -30 -28 -29 -40 -54 -49 -9 -24 -1 -12 N/A 200 MB DIV -21 -30 -33 -28 -3 -28 -22 -31 -8 -3 -21 -6 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -5 2 0 3 -2 -7 -16 -4 -9 N/A LAND (KM) 470 485 478 476 482 480 492 475 490 548 550 712 N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.7 21.0 21.3 21.6 22.5 23.5 24.4 25.1 25.7 26.3 25.1 N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.1 114.5 115.0 115.5 116.3 117.0 117.9 118.9 120.0 120.3 121.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 8 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -9. -16. -24. -29. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -11. -17. -30. -45. -57. -69. -80. -90. -97.-101. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/15/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/15/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##