* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952014 06/21/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 31 34 37 40 40 37 32 25 20 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 29 31 34 37 40 40 37 32 25 20 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 31 32 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 7 8 11 17 22 20 17 12 12 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 0 1 3 3 -2 -4 -1 1 2 5 SHEAR DIR 194 216 216 198 173 175 155 154 156 170 141 132 129 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 28.4 27.5 26.5 25.5 24.6 24.0 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 152 154 156 158 149 139 128 117 107 101 96 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 -51.5 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 67 64 63 62 61 60 56 55 47 44 38 36 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 5 3 2 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR 21 34 31 30 26 11 -5 -11 -14 -9 -11 13 11 200 MB DIV 97 92 70 74 77 52 44 3 4 -10 -24 -18 1 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 1 2 2 0 1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1141 1128 1115 1055 997 822 670 517 445 506 552 640 732 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.6 12.2 14.1 16.5 18.4 19.7 20.4 20.8 20.7 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 110.2 110.4 110.6 110.6 110.6 110.4 110.6 111.3 112.6 114.1 115.5 116.7 117.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 5 6 8 10 11 9 8 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 29 30 31 33 34 28 17 1 29 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 26. 28. 29. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -4. -7. -8. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 15. 12. 7. 0. -5. -8. -12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952014 INVEST 06/21/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 66% is 5.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 43% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 27% is 6.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952014 INVEST 06/21/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##