* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952014 06/21/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 33 34 31 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 33 34 31 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 31 31 29 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 5 11 14 22 29 31 30 26 32 37 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -2 1 4 9 0 5 5 7 7 8 13 SHEAR DIR 215 219 194 179 187 177 157 172 174 175 182 202 213 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.2 28.9 27.9 26.7 24.8 23.1 22.2 21.3 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 153 156 156 154 144 131 112 94 84 74 68 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 4 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 64 63 60 60 57 56 51 47 41 35 29 29 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 8 9 8 8 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 33 34 34 31 8 -6 -13 -26 -20 -27 -29 -53 200 MB DIV 90 74 62 59 57 51 43 14 0 25 16 13 -3 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 1 2 2 4 5 9 12 11 14 LAND (KM) 1172 1141 1112 1044 979 843 694 611 645 711 787 856 969 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.8 11.2 12.0 12.8 14.8 17.0 18.7 20.1 21.4 22.5 23.5 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 110.6 110.8 111.0 111.1 111.1 111.3 112.2 113.8 116.0 118.2 120.2 122.1 124.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 8 9 11 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 9 10 9 3 28 28 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 25. 25. 25. 23. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -4. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 6. 2. -7. -16. -26. -33. -42. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952014 INVEST 06/21/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952014 INVEST 06/21/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##