* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952014 06/21/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 23 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 23 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 13 19 20 24 24 23 14 14 14 18 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 1 0 3 5 -1 -1 -2 1 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 185 173 150 156 165 161 164 163 173 147 163 179 193 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.2 27.3 26.0 24.7 23.4 22.6 22.2 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 156 157 159 157 147 137 123 109 96 87 83 77 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.5 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 2 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 65 64 63 61 61 57 57 49 46 37 33 30 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 8 9 8 6 5 4 2 3 1 3 850 MB ENV VOR 38 36 28 25 15 0 -7 -8 -3 4 15 -5 -10 200 MB DIV 90 78 85 70 60 52 20 -2 -19 -6 -5 19 -2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 2 3 7 LAND (KM) 1038 973 911 828 752 638 478 416 463 496 592 680 729 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 12.1 12.8 13.8 14.7 17.0 18.8 20.2 21.1 21.9 22.4 22.8 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 109.9 110.0 110.1 110.1 110.1 110.6 111.4 112.8 114.4 116.0 117.5 119.0 120.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 9 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 9 12 11 9 6 1 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 20. 24. 24. 24. 23. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -10. -15. -22. -26. -32. -34. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952014 INVEST 06/21/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952014 INVEST 06/21/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##