* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952014 06/21/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 28 27 27 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 28 27 27 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 25 24 22 20 19 17 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 15 21 23 22 20 18 15 8 8 6 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 5 6 -1 -5 -4 0 2 7 4 4 SHEAR DIR 156 153 157 161 157 143 149 161 160 150 143 146 132 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.8 27.8 27.0 25.8 24.7 24.2 23.7 23.3 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 159 157 153 142 133 120 108 103 98 94 91 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 7 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 66 64 62 61 62 60 58 51 43 38 35 33 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 9 10 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR 39 25 23 16 11 2 1 5 8 16 20 -1 2 200 MB DIV 91 78 70 47 49 50 5 -3 -10 -39 -22 -25 -13 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 0 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 981 895 812 721 641 542 391 341 396 441 534 652 782 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.8 13.7 14.8 15.9 18.0 19.5 20.6 21.3 21.5 21.5 21.4 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 109.9 109.9 109.8 109.8 109.8 110.2 111.0 112.2 113.5 114.7 116.1 117.5 119.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 11 11 9 8 8 6 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 10 8 4 29 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 14. 20. 23. 24. 24. 24. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. -1. -6. -11. -14. -18. -19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952014 INVEST 06/21/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952014 INVEST 06/21/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##