* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952014 06/22/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 25 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 25 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 22 20 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 19 21 20 21 18 15 2 8 11 12 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 6 3 -2 -5 2 6 3 5 3 5 SHEAR DIR 137 139 146 147 136 139 145 168 80 82 111 102 119 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.2 27.4 26.6 25.8 25.2 24.8 24.2 23.9 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 157 153 146 137 128 119 113 109 103 101 99 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.4 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 64 62 62 61 60 58 49 44 36 34 32 30 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 9 7 5 4 3 2 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 26 18 13 10 -3 -8 -4 -1 13 -1 -2 -15 200 MB DIV 90 86 69 47 37 23 -1 -42 -41 -33 -17 -19 -25 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 3 3 2 0 1 -1 0 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 919 824 737 666 604 474 376 385 455 538 650 792 947 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.6 14.7 15.9 17.0 18.7 19.9 20.5 20.8 20.7 20.5 20.2 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 109.8 109.9 109.9 110.1 110.2 110.8 111.7 112.7 113.8 115.1 116.6 118.2 120.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 12 12 10 8 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 7 3 1 31 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 14. 19. 22. 23. 24. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -18. -24. -26. -27. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952014 INVEST 06/22/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952014 INVEST 06/22/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##