* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952014 06/22/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 23 24 24 24 24 23 23 23 23 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 23 24 24 24 24 23 23 23 23 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 25 25 25 24 22 20 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 9 5 5 4 6 14 10 14 15 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -2 -6 -3 5 3 5 0 3 1 3 SHEAR DIR 119 109 110 97 75 85 47 76 79 83 81 83 83 SST (C) 28.9 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.5 26.9 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 150 148 147 147 145 145 144 142 141 138 132 126 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 68 67 67 65 57 54 54 51 48 47 46 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 22 23 23 25 31 13 28 12 0 1 0 2 200 MB DIV 30 27 43 3 -10 11 -41 -16 -3 -20 -5 -17 -13 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 440 348 271 243 215 219 296 436 577 639 716 818 967 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 17.0 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.1 18.7 18.0 17.7 17.4 17.3 17.3 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 107.2 107.2 107.1 107.1 107.1 107.3 107.9 109.0 110.4 111.8 113.4 115.1 117.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 4 3 2 5 6 7 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 19 21 24 22 13 7 4 7 5 6 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 12 CX,CY: 4/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952014 INVEST 06/22/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952014 INVEST 06/22/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##