* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952014 06/23/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 29 28 26 23 21 19 18 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 29 28 26 23 21 19 18 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 32 32 32 30 27 24 22 19 17 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 3 6 7 6 3 8 10 10 10 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -2 -3 -5 3 11 5 5 4 5 1 5 SHEAR DIR 137 131 168 191 209 293 352 22 54 61 76 83 89 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.7 25.8 24.8 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 145 144 142 138 136 134 134 130 121 111 104 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 7 8 6 6 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 61 57 52 50 48 43 45 41 41 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 17 12 6 8 14 17 12 -5 14 5 19 6 200 MB DIV 35 33 2 -2 6 -38 -26 -29 -18 -12 -18 -18 -15 700-850 TADV 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 3 LAND (KM) 381 330 280 272 274 326 357 419 499 611 731 836 976 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.3 19.1 19.6 20.0 20.0 19.7 19.2 18.9 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.0 108.0 108.2 108.3 108.8 109.6 110.8 112.2 113.8 115.6 117.6 119.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 5 3 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 13 13 12 7 3 27 27 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 12 CX,CY: 2/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 407 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952014 INVEST 06/23/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952014 INVEST 06/23/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##