* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962014 06/27/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 31 39 50 64 76 83 87 94 97 99 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 31 39 50 64 76 83 87 94 97 99 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 27 32 38 45 52 58 64 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 13 9 6 5 3 3 8 6 9 12 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -2 -2 -3 -2 -3 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 19 12 17 36 29 10 51 58 55 56 64 16 14 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.2 28.6 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 163 163 161 157 150 145 144 146 152 154 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 83 83 85 86 84 82 80 78 75 73 70 72 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 8 9 12 14 14 17 19 22 24 28 31 34 850 MB ENV VOR 17 26 36 40 38 44 51 52 66 66 73 71 63 200 MB DIV 55 88 97 88 87 101 93 83 46 70 65 39 56 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -6 -6 -4 -10 -3 -11 -9 -4 -2 -6 -3 LAND (KM) 448 454 459 467 451 496 591 741 831 923 1007 1016 848 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.9 15.5 15.8 15.9 15.5 14.8 14.3 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 101.3 102.0 102.7 103.5 104.3 106.4 108.8 110.9 112.8 114.0 114.3 113.3 111.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 10 7 5 4 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 72 72 59 55 67 58 21 17 16 14 17 19 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. 0. 6. 15. 25. 32. 35. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 8. 10. 14. 18. 22. 24. 31. 34. 37. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 11. 19. 30. 44. 56. 63. 67. 74. 77. 79. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962014 INVEST 06/27/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 65.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962014 INVEST 06/27/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##