* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962014 06/28/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 34 41 52 65 73 76 78 82 83 83 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 34 41 52 65 73 76 78 82 83 83 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 24 28 34 40 45 50 56 61 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 10 9 6 3 3 5 6 7 11 20 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -3 -2 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 24 26 40 44 21 66 22 54 109 87 54 54 62 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.2 28.4 28.0 27.8 27.8 28.2 28.9 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 164 163 162 158 149 145 141 140 144 153 157 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -51.8 -52.4 -51.4 -51.9 -51.3 -51.8 -50.9 -51.6 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 8 7 6 6 4 4 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 84 85 86 84 83 82 76 73 70 63 61 60 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 8 10 14 15 14 16 17 17 19 22 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR 23 32 43 48 51 56 64 69 80 72 75 80 103 200 MB DIV 87 74 89 91 108 80 87 30 51 50 25 51 49 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -6 -6 -9 -7 -6 -13 -5 -3 -3 -5 -8 LAND (KM) 461 469 465 466 480 562 722 820 952 1092 1191 1235 1164 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.5 16.1 16.2 16.0 15.3 14.4 13.3 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 102.5 103.3 104.1 105.1 106.0 108.4 110.9 113.3 115.4 116.6 116.9 115.9 113.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 11 8 6 5 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 62 55 63 76 65 25 16 12 24 25 29 26 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -1. 0. 6. 15. 24. 31. 34. 37. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 8. 9. 14. 15. 16. 17. 22. 22. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 14. 21. 32. 45. 53. 56. 58. 62. 63. 63. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962014 INVEST 06/28/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962014 INVEST 06/28/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##