* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 06/28/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 25 27 32 36 40 43 46 47 49 51 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 25 27 32 36 40 43 46 41 33 29 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 32 36 42 41 33 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 15 11 7 9 7 10 6 7 4 4 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -4 0 -1 -2 -4 -4 -4 -5 -6 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 313 311 320 343 322 321 354 350 51 26 54 82 200 SST (C) 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.5 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 117 116 117 117 117 117 117 118 119 119 118 116 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 95 95 96 96 96 96 97 98 98 98 96 93 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.1 -55.7 -55.7 -55.8 -55.3 -55.4 -54.8 -54.7 -54.4 -54.5 -54.1 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 5 5 8 7 10 9 13 10 13 7 700-500 MB RH 64 66 63 61 63 62 65 63 65 60 63 65 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -71 -55 -67 -90 -85 -76 -67 -74 -77 -62 -54 -20 1 200 MB DIV -6 0 -23 -10 -9 -8 -1 4 7 25 24 23 53 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -3 1 -5 -2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 100 114 129 136 148 172 179 140 100 52 -4 -43 -43 LAT (DEG N) 32.5 32.4 32.2 32.0 31.8 31.4 31.1 31.0 30.9 31.0 31.3 32.0 32.7 LONG(DEG W) 78.6 78.6 78.5 78.7 78.8 79.1 79.4 79.9 80.4 80.9 81.4 81.5 80.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 16 20 25 29 30 30 28 20 15 14 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 17. 21. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 10. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 26. 27. 29. 31. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 06/28/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912014 INVEST 06/28/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 06/28/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)