* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962014 06/28/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 38 47 52 55 55 55 56 59 60 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 38 47 52 55 55 55 56 59 60 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 30 34 36 36 36 35 34 35 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 7 2 1 6 5 5 1 1 1 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 1 0 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 5 2 SHEAR DIR 51 42 24 347 217 204 176 169 235 18 21 91 50 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.0 27.9 27.4 26.8 26.2 25.9 26.3 26.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 161 160 155 144 138 132 125 121 125 129 137 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -51.4 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 6 4 3 2 3 3 4 6 700-500 MB RH 86 84 82 82 82 77 73 69 64 63 61 58 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 14 12 12 13 14 14 16 18 18 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR 35 46 50 48 41 50 61 61 53 63 60 81 76 200 MB DIV 77 85 97 81 74 99 67 52 27 1 3 20 21 700-850 TADV -7 -9 -10 -13 -4 -2 -3 0 -3 -2 -1 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 480 483 496 521 559 698 731 844 992 1116 1262 1397 1499 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.7 17.2 17.5 17.3 16.8 15.8 14.8 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 104.5 105.5 106.4 107.6 108.7 111.1 113.5 115.7 117.5 118.8 119.7 120.4 120.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 12 11 10 8 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 70 76 57 43 25 22 7 5 1 1 3 10 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 459 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 13. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 22. 27. 30. 30. 30. 31. 34. 36. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962014 INVEST 06/28/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962014 INVEST 06/28/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##