* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 06/28/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 27 30 34 40 43 47 49 50 50 50 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 27 30 34 40 43 47 49 50 42 33 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 27 31 36 40 45 50 46 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 13 6 3 9 8 14 8 9 11 10 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -1 -2 -5 -1 -7 -5 -6 -3 -4 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 298 314 336 345 330 345 357 12 27 46 27 58 55 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.3 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 121 121 121 120 118 120 119 119 117 115 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 98 99 100 99 99 97 99 98 98 96 96 93 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -55.6 -55.6 -55.7 -55.5 -55.2 -55.0 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 -53.9 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 5 5 8 7 9 9 11 10 14 10 12 700-500 MB RH 65 62 59 61 62 59 62 58 61 62 61 64 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 7 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -44 -56 -77 -76 -58 -73 -46 -70 -50 -55 -37 -40 -5 200 MB DIV -7 -25 -18 -13 -14 -6 6 -2 24 2 44 14 47 700-850 TADV -5 -1 0 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 9 LAND (KM) 157 180 206 229 254 255 223 187 154 100 43 -14 -68 LAT (DEG N) 32.1 31.8 31.5 31.2 30.9 30.5 30.3 30.4 30.7 31.1 31.6 32.4 33.5 LONG(DEG W) 78.2 78.2 78.2 78.3 78.4 78.7 79.0 79.4 79.8 80.3 80.7 80.8 80.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 3 3 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 32 40 43 40 34 30 29 28 23 15 11 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):130/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 7. 13. 17. 21. 23. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 20. 23. 27. 29. 30. 30. 30. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 06/28/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912014 INVEST 06/28/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 06/28/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)