* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962014 06/28/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 39 44 50 58 62 61 59 52 48 45 43 V (KT) LAND 30 35 39 44 50 58 62 61 59 52 48 45 43 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 43 49 52 53 51 49 45 41 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 7 6 6 7 7 5 2 2 4 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -2 -4 -3 -3 -1 -1 4 3 2 3 SHEAR DIR 48 66 70 133 136 170 166 173 271 254 253 262 278 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.2 28.6 27.7 27.1 26.5 25.9 25.1 24.4 24.1 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 162 158 151 141 134 127 121 113 105 102 99 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 5 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 85 84 83 82 80 77 75 68 64 59 53 50 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 13 13 13 14 13 14 13 13 13 15 850 MB ENV VOR 42 45 43 40 44 38 56 60 69 66 67 73 79 200 MB DIV 101 95 82 64 93 80 59 43 8 0 -18 -13 -7 700-850 TADV -10 -7 -7 0 0 -2 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 LAND (KM) 493 517 546 572 628 712 730 790 853 897 990 1067 1141 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 12 11 9 6 6 7 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 77 61 47 28 28 15 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 14. 19. 22. 23. 23. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 20. 28. 32. 31. 29. 22. 18. 15. 13. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962014 INVEST 06/28/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 74% is 5.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 53% is 6.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 36% is 6.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 28% is 6.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962014 INVEST 06/28/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##