* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972014 06/28/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 24 26 28 32 38 41 42 40 39 39 40 V (KT) LAND 20 23 24 26 28 32 38 41 42 40 33 36 36 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 29 31 33 30 34 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 19 19 19 22 23 23 20 19 15 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 4 1 0 0 -1 0 3 0 6 3 SHEAR DIR 8 16 18 24 18 356 331 326 323 311 282 274 248 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.4 30.4 30.2 30.0 29.9 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 165 166 167 166 166 168 167 164 162 162 158 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 8 8 9 9 8 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 78 81 79 79 79 80 79 76 75 74 69 68 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -1 4 -8 -13 -11 -18 -6 15 23 23 25 4 200 MB DIV 66 73 87 85 90 81 71 105 95 72 74 40 30 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 3 0 2 -4 -2 -8 -5 LAND (KM) 600 535 476 418 377 296 219 108 34 9 -14 29 104 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.9 11.6 12.3 13.0 14.5 15.9 17.1 18.1 18.8 19.4 19.8 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 95.6 96.7 97.7 98.7 99.7 101.3 102.5 103.2 103.6 104.1 104.8 105.6 106.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 10 8 6 5 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 24 28 26 29 38 72 47 53 34 9 54 18 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. 0. 6. 15. 25. 34. 39. 42. 45. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 8. 12. 18. 21. 22. 20. 19. 20. 20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972014 INVEST 06/28/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972014 INVEST 06/28/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##