* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 06/29/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 30 35 40 42 45 47 49 48 49 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 30 35 40 42 45 47 49 48 49 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 27 31 35 39 43 47 51 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 10 7 9 9 13 14 13 10 8 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -4 -7 -4 -5 -4 -4 -2 -4 -4 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 314 338 336 347 320 354 352 46 24 45 45 20 33 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 122 122 121 121 121 119 119 118 116 116 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 100 100 100 100 99 99 98 98 98 96 96 100 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.8 -55.8 -55.7 -55.3 -55.3 -54.7 -54.8 -54.4 -54.4 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 8 8 7 10 8 13 10 14 10 13 700-500 MB RH 63 60 61 61 59 60 59 61 57 58 62 62 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 4 5 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -68 -69 -60 -62 -54 -42 -47 -46 -39 -29 -30 -15 200 MB DIV -22 -23 -8 -17 -2 -16 0 15 20 -4 28 12 26 700-850 TADV -1 0 -4 -2 -1 0 0 0 1 -1 2 -1 10 LAND (KM) 262 278 296 318 314 278 252 223 209 175 129 71 53 LAT (DEG N) 31.2 31.0 30.7 30.5 30.2 30.0 30.0 30.3 30.6 31.0 31.6 32.3 33.4 LONG(DEG W) 77.7 77.8 77.9 78.0 78.0 78.3 78.6 79.0 79.2 79.5 79.6 79.4 78.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 3 2 1 2 2 2 3 4 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 36 32 29 26 25 24 26 29 31 27 20 13 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):140/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 20. 22. 25. 27. 29. 28. 29. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 06/29/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912014 INVEST 06/29/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 06/29/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)