* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042014 06/29/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 43 48 54 59 59 57 55 52 50 48 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 43 48 54 59 59 57 55 52 50 48 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 38 43 46 48 49 48 47 46 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 8 7 7 7 5 0 7 6 1 5 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -4 -4 -4 0 0 0 4 3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 57 73 85 92 106 128 133 298 45 58 74 330 46 SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.3 28.8 28.3 27.7 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.5 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 159 154 149 141 134 128 126 123 119 116 114 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -51.3 -51.9 -51.2 -51.7 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 84 83 83 80 78 74 70 64 63 59 59 58 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 15 16 17 16 16 15 15 16 15 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 44 40 41 41 46 71 71 56 43 35 43 45 55 200 MB DIV 116 77 75 89 106 62 49 63 31 -16 -36 -26 -4 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -5 -2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 569 606 660 757 817 862 931 974 989 1043 1126 1187 1244 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.8 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.0 16.9 16.9 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 106.7 108.1 109.4 110.9 112.4 114.5 116.0 116.8 117.1 117.9 119.1 120.0 120.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 15 13 9 5 3 2 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 55 38 28 26 20 13 13 6 4 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 414 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 22. 23. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 18. 24. 29. 29. 27. 25. 23. 20. 18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042014 FOUR 06/29/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 FOUR 06/29/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##