* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972014 06/29/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 26 26 30 34 35 33 30 28 29 32 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 26 26 30 34 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 22 24 25 24 26 26 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 21 20 23 28 34 32 29 26 23 18 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 1 -1 -3 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 16 13 16 12 352 334 320 321 322 326 323 333 340 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.4 30.5 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.1 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 166 168 169 169 169 167 165 164 161 161 160 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.0 -52.7 -51.7 -52.8 -51.5 -52.4 -51.5 -52.2 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 8 9 8 10 7 8 7 9 7 9 700-500 MB RH 79 79 79 77 78 77 78 76 78 75 77 75 75 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -12 -17 -23 -15 -28 -17 -17 6 14 30 13 5 200 MB DIV 102 88 87 92 119 87 122 61 76 49 36 19 36 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 566 477 394 309 243 131 33 -33 -87 -114 -147 -152 -160 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 11.5 12.4 13.3 14.2 15.7 16.8 17.5 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 96.3 97.2 98.0 98.7 99.4 100.3 100.6 100.7 100.6 100.6 100.5 100.7 101.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 11 10 7 5 3 2 1 1 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 28 26 26 30 45 67 47 58 14 11 9 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 6. 15. 26. 34. 39. 42. 45. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -8. -12. -15. -16. -16. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 6. 10. 14. 15. 13. 10. 8. 9. 12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972014 INVEST 06/29/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972014 INVEST 06/29/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##