* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042014 06/29/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 52 55 57 54 51 47 46 42 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 45 52 55 57 54 51 47 46 42 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 40 42 44 45 45 44 43 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 5 8 7 6 2 7 5 5 3 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -3 -5 -5 -3 0 -3 0 0 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 53 65 108 111 117 126 57 47 62 333 331 318 241 SST (C) 29.5 29.1 28.6 28.1 27.8 27.3 26.9 26.4 26.1 25.8 25.7 25.5 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 157 152 146 142 135 130 125 121 117 117 114 112 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -51.3 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 82 82 79 78 75 74 69 64 62 59 58 55 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 16 17 16 16 15 16 15 16 14 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 43 40 39 41 47 65 55 43 44 53 47 61 61 200 MB DIV 77 66 91 90 82 73 44 4 -6 -11 -40 -7 -17 700-850 TADV -10 -4 0 -1 -3 0 -6 -5 -5 -3 -4 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 577 645 735 776 790 819 868 905 943 973 1006 1039 1071 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.5 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.6 17.6 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 108.1 109.5 110.9 112.1 113.3 114.7 115.8 116.6 117.3 117.8 118.2 118.7 119.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 12 10 7 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 37 27 27 20 12 8 6 2 12 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 17. 20. 21. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2. 0. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 25. 27. 24. 21. 17. 16. 12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042014 FOUR 06/29/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 FOUR 06/29/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##