* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972014 06/29/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 28 33 37 39 40 41 42 45 48 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 28 33 37 30 28 27 30 33 36 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 22 23 23 24 25 26 26 33 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 22 23 24 32 26 19 13 11 10 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 1 0 1 -3 1 0 0 -2 -4 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 24 7 356 351 334 326 337 332 327 324 308 321 245 SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 168 169 169 168 165 163 162 163 164 162 159 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -51.6 -52.6 -51.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 9 10 8 9 8 10 8 11 10 700-500 MB RH 84 82 82 80 79 77 74 77 73 74 73 72 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -7 -1 -21 -23 -17 -19 8 0 0 -15 -23 -38 200 MB DIV 71 65 80 75 58 104 51 48 -10 10 -9 2 -10 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -5 -3 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 4 LAND (KM) 305 252 198 164 111 32 0 -15 -22 -22 0 14 66 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.7 15.6 16.3 17.0 18.0 18.5 18.8 18.9 18.9 18.9 19.1 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 99.9 100.8 101.6 102.2 102.8 103.4 103.6 103.7 103.7 103.7 104.1 104.8 105.6 STM SPEED (KT) 17 12 10 9 7 4 2 1 0 1 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 48 75 57 50 54 45 62 60 60 60 7 9 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 15. 26. 34. 39. 42. 45. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 17. 19. 20. 21. 22. 25. 28. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972014 INVEST 06/29/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 149.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972014 INVEST 06/29/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##