* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 06/29/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 41 45 48 52 55 60 60 61 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 41 45 48 52 55 49 36 36 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 34 38 43 47 51 55 51 36 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 12 13 9 17 10 8 9 10 6 16 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 -5 -6 -4 -4 -4 -1 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 338 325 329 338 351 9 23 15 27 295 297 281 239 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.2 25.6 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 122 122 122 123 122 120 118 116 115 111 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 101 101 101 101 102 101 100 99 97 98 95 82 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.5 -55.6 -55.5 -55.2 -54.8 -54.5 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 9 9 12 11 14 10 11 5 6 700-500 MB RH 59 58 56 58 59 56 57 57 59 60 62 56 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 8 8 9 7 7 6 6 6 8 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR -52 -51 -54 -45 -25 -46 -28 -56 -35 -52 6 11 21 200 MB DIV -17 -22 0 -6 -2 -2 26 -1 25 11 58 15 38 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 2 -1 0 -4 1 -4 -6 LAND (KM) 343 323 305 284 264 236 231 206 157 81 -10 -80 73 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.9 30.4 31.2 32.1 33.6 35.3 36.9 LONG(DEG W) 77.3 77.5 77.6 77.8 78.0 78.4 78.8 79.2 79.6 79.6 79.2 77.7 75.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 5 6 9 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 24 24 24 24 27 29 24 13 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 18. 20. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -3. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 20. 23. 27. 30. 35. 35. 36. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 06/29/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912014 INVEST 06/29/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 06/29/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED