* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972014 06/29/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 43 48 50 49 49 49 51 53 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 33 30 28 27 27 27 30 31 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 26 24 24 29 25 21 21 20 12 13 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 -1 -3 2 0 2 0 0 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 357 354 352 331 324 327 323 319 316 317 291 284 279 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.1 30.0 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 170 169 166 163 162 163 164 163 162 159 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 81 81 79 78 78 76 72 71 70 73 72 73 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 -13 -13 -17 -22 -1 6 -1 10 -21 -18 -42 200 MB DIV 65 74 72 60 73 77 52 25 -2 16 1 5 -16 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -5 -1 -1 -2 2 0 0 0 1 3 3 LAND (KM) 225 179 146 94 40 -15 -39 -45 -39 -29 -29 2 67 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.7 16.5 17.2 17.8 18.7 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 100.6 101.4 102.2 102.7 103.2 103.6 103.7 103.6 103.7 103.9 104.3 105.0 105.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 8 6 3 1 0 0 1 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 75 58 51 55 48 61 59 60 59 58 54 18 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 6. 16. 25. 32. 36. 39. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -11. -11. -10. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 23. 25. 24. 24. 24. 26. 28. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972014 INVEST 06/29/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972014 INVEST 06/29/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##