* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 06/30/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 38 42 49 55 59 64 66 68 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 38 42 49 55 59 64 66 68 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 46 52 58 62 66 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 8 9 9 7 6 6 7 8 12 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -6 -5 -5 -3 -4 -4 -3 -4 -2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 322 329 334 346 341 46 17 7 337 322 294 286 268 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.6 26.4 26.9 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 125 126 127 129 129 128 123 118 116 123 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 106 106 107 107 107 108 108 104 99 98 104 97 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.3 -55.3 -55.0 -54.6 -54.6 -54.2 -54.4 -53.9 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 10 11 10 14 11 15 11 11 5 7 700-500 MB RH 60 57 57 58 55 54 50 52 55 56 57 54 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 10 8 9 8 9 9 10 10 13 15 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -56 -40 -27 -29 -48 -48 -38 -33 -25 4 10 14 200 MB DIV -6 -3 -1 -1 -9 16 -12 3 12 22 47 47 67 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 2 1 13 17 10 LAND (KM) 316 266 224 179 130 84 68 100 138 144 81 48 52 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 5 5 3 2 3 5 6 5 7 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 22 18 25 22 14 16 3 3 1 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):190/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 17. 20. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 17. 24. 30. 34. 39. 41. 43. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 06/30/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912014 INVEST 06/30/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 06/30/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)