* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042014 06/30/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 50 53 57 57 53 47 42 38 35 31 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 50 53 57 57 53 47 42 38 35 31 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 43 46 49 49 49 47 44 41 39 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 8 9 10 6 6 2 6 8 5 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -6 -5 -3 -3 -2 1 -1 0 -2 3 3 SHEAR DIR 64 84 73 82 101 102 98 315 340 344 331 311 272 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.2 25.8 25.6 25.4 25.2 24.9 24.8 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 142 138 136 131 123 118 115 113 112 109 109 109 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 77 76 80 78 75 70 67 66 65 63 59 56 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 17 18 17 16 15 14 13 13 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 32 39 48 58 50 38 47 49 46 47 47 45 41 200 MB DIV 50 71 44 60 63 29 19 1 5 7 5 -12 -19 700-850 TADV -8 -8 -7 -4 -1 -2 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 792 802 822 827 838 868 885 909 919 951 992 1067 1160 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.5 16.7 17.1 17.4 18.0 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.4 18.3 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 112.6 113.5 114.3 114.9 115.5 116.5 117.1 117.5 117.8 118.3 119.0 119.9 121.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 7 6 4 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 29 23 28 23 15 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 426 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 18. 22. 22. 18. 12. 7. 3. 0. -4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042014 FOUR 06/30/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 FOUR 06/30/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##