* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972014 06/30/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 31 36 42 45 46 44 45 47 50 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 26 27 27 27 29 28 29 31 34 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 24 26 26 27 30 33 37 40 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 23 21 23 23 23 23 21 22 19 12 12 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 -1 1 0 0 -1 0 -4 0 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 350 345 342 331 328 328 318 310 310 307 312 282 323 SST (C) 30.4 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.4 29.9 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 169 167 166 167 167 167 168 167 162 158 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -51.8 -52.9 -51.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 8 10 7 8 6 9 8 11 700-500 MB RH 82 80 79 77 77 73 76 76 80 81 80 77 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -19 -17 -29 -7 -7 6 3 11 11 4 -23 -18 200 MB DIV 76 64 46 66 86 46 61 18 27 14 23 4 14 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -3 -1 -1 0 2 0 0 0 -2 1 -2 LAND (KM) 157 124 55 15 -16 -59 -66 -22 11 33 57 103 122 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.8 17.5 18.0 18.4 18.8 18.6 18.2 17.9 17.7 17.8 18.1 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 101.6 102.2 102.8 103.0 103.2 103.1 102.5 102.2 102.2 102.6 103.5 104.6 105.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 5 3 2 2 2 2 3 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 12 8 61 20 60 61 2 9 8 5 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 13 CX,CY: -7/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -1. 0. 6. 16. 25. 33. 37. 40. 43. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -9. -11. -11. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 20. 21. 19. 20. 22. 25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972014 INVEST 06/30/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972014 INVEST 06/30/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##