* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 06/30/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 31 37 42 49 56 63 68 71 71 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 31 37 42 49 56 63 68 71 71 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 32 36 40 45 50 55 59 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 6 12 15 8 12 13 13 13 17 10 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -6 -4 -2 -3 -4 -2 -4 -4 -4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 329 339 325 337 3 11 355 357 328 307 308 282 259 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.6 27.5 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 132 131 131 133 133 131 128 126 130 131 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 110 110 109 108 109 111 109 106 103 108 111 98 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.3 -55.1 -54.7 -54.6 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -53.9 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 9 10 9 12 11 14 12 13 8 8 3 700-500 MB RH 61 60 60 57 53 54 52 52 53 50 50 49 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 10 9 8 10 10 11 13 15 19 21 23 850 MB ENV VOR -55 -41 -23 -18 -35 -24 -55 -26 -42 -12 -20 1 -8 200 MB DIV 14 -6 -6 -10 7 18 16 25 12 42 21 58 47 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 7 18 14 5 LAND (KM) 255 222 195 171 146 117 140 185 162 105 127 94 126 LAT (DEG N) 29.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 2 2 2 4 5 5 4 6 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 27 28 29 27 27 28 27 19 17 12 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 12. 17. 24. 31. 38. 43. 46. 46. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 06/30/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912014 INVEST 06/30/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 06/30/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)