* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP042014 06/30/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 46 48 51 50 47 40 35 29 26 22 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 46 48 51 50 47 40 35 29 26 22 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 41 42 43 42 41 39 37 34 32 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 9 9 10 6 3 4 8 11 8 9 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 -2 -4 -4 -5 0 -1 -1 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 44 65 89 82 75 106 71 347 337 331 307 300 292 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.5 25.3 25.1 24.9 24.6 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 135 131 127 122 118 114 112 110 109 106 106 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 79 81 81 77 75 73 68 68 63 62 59 57 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 19 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 17 30 39 39 33 37 37 47 37 42 35 32 23 200 MB DIV 79 69 77 82 67 30 21 17 5 -2 -24 -17 -21 700-850 TADV -12 -9 -3 -2 -4 -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 779 767 767 771 782 814 829 848 879 912 954 1021 1115 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 112.8 113.6 114.3 114.9 115.4 116.1 116.6 117.1 117.6 118.1 118.7 119.6 120.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 5 3 3 2 2 2 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 27 18 25 15 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -5. -7. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 13. 16. 15. 12. 5. 0. -6. -9. -13. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042014 DOUGLAS 06/30/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 DOUGLAS 06/30/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##