* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP042014 06/30/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 42 43 41 37 33 29 25 22 19 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 42 43 41 37 33 29 25 22 19 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 36 35 34 33 32 30 27 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 8 8 8 7 4 5 12 12 10 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -1 -2 -6 -5 0 0 0 -4 0 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 61 72 74 97 96 113 28 336 318 323 314 308 339 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.3 25.9 25.5 25.3 25.2 25.0 24.8 24.6 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 131 128 124 119 114 112 111 110 108 106 106 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 79 79 76 72 71 67 64 64 65 63 63 56 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 21 21 20 21 20 18 17 17 17 16 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 33 45 53 52 52 59 66 59 61 46 42 34 13 200 MB DIV 71 83 87 83 63 39 5 4 17 -9 -11 -4 -20 700-850 TADV -12 -7 -4 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 0 -2 LAND (KM) 741 743 753 759 770 782 786 797 818 853 906 969 1035 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 113.7 114.4 115.0 115.5 115.9 116.6 117.1 117.4 117.7 118.2 118.9 119.7 120.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 3 2 1 2 3 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 6. 2. -2. -6. -10. -13. -16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042014 DOUGLAS 06/30/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 DOUGLAS 06/30/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##