* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP052014 06/30/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 47 48 49 50 49 48 47 48 47 46 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 47 48 49 50 49 48 47 48 47 46 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 47 48 48 46 45 45 45 45 46 46 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 26 22 25 27 20 20 11 13 9 5 1 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 3 1 -2 -2 0 1 0 -1 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 353 351 349 345 346 340 352 344 315 338 308 264 191 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.3 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 157 154 154 153 152 151 151 150 146 143 140 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -51.9 -52.4 -52.7 -51.6 -52.6 -52.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 8 10 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 81 79 80 78 76 76 76 79 80 77 75 69 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -25 -21 -32 -38 -13 -10 -6 -26 -42 -57 -49 -56 200 MB DIV 66 62 55 60 60 63 41 36 7 25 0 5 6 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -2 -1 1 4 3 6 2 1 1 1 2 LAND (KM) 118 111 107 107 107 130 160 184 199 250 368 469 541 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 3 1 1 1 2 1 3 6 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 51 47 43 42 41 40 37 36 33 24 18 19 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 20. 20. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 2. 1. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052014 ELIDA 06/30/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052014 ELIDA 06/30/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##