* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP042014 06/30/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 39 40 39 38 34 30 24 21 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 39 40 39 38 34 30 24 21 18 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 36 35 34 33 32 30 28 27 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 6 5 4 4 3 4 10 7 7 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -5 -6 -3 -4 -2 -2 -6 -4 -2 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 58 69 74 95 128 128 352 305 315 333 325 342 360 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.3 25.9 25.7 25.5 25.2 25.0 24.9 24.7 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 129 126 123 119 116 114 111 110 109 108 107 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.2 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 79 79 75 74 74 71 71 69 69 64 60 54 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 22 20 20 20 19 18 17 16 14 14 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 31 31 31 28 41 43 55 50 47 36 34 28 14 200 MB DIV 83 77 53 38 39 18 15 11 11 -17 -13 -24 -10 700-850 TADV -7 -5 -4 -3 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 742 744 751 759 770 776 791 807 833 876 937 1016 1118 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.7 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.2 19.2 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 114.2 114.7 115.2 115.6 115.9 116.5 116.9 117.3 117.8 118.4 119.1 120.1 121.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. -1. -5. -11. -14. -17. -20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042014 DOUGLAS 06/30/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 DOUGLAS 06/30/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##