* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP052014 06/30/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 47 48 51 51 50 49 48 51 52 54 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 47 48 51 51 50 49 48 51 52 54 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 45 45 45 43 42 40 39 39 40 42 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 22 24 25 23 26 24 21 16 10 6 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -1 -1 0 -2 -3 -4 -4 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 349 347 356 350 343 343 341 348 343 353 323 298 256 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 153 152 151 150 148 149 149 148 147 144 140 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 80 82 80 80 78 79 80 81 80 77 72 68 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -33 -37 -43 -36 -4 -22 -9 -40 -44 -48 -43 -45 200 MB DIV 59 63 70 35 52 65 36 15 1 10 0 18 2 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 1 1 0 0 -1 0 0 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 137 134 137 142 147 171 196 201 216 263 360 469 587 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.6 17.8 17.9 17.9 17.7 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.4 17.2 17.2 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 104.1 104.4 104.7 104.9 105.1 105.2 105.3 105.4 105.7 106.4 107.5 108.8 110.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 4 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 44 40 38 36 34 32 30 29 26 22 18 19 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 19. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -11. -11. -9. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 6. 7. 9. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052014 ELIDA 06/30/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052014 ELIDA 06/30/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##